Monday, June 3, 2013

2016 Republican Primary Prediction

Unfortunate for the Liberty Movement, Ron Paul will not be gracing the field with his presence as he did in the 2008 and 2012 primary seasons.  Instead his son, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, will likely take over the Paul family quest to secure the presidency in the name of political sanity and individual freedom.  Of course on the political landscape of today where politicians seem bent on perpetual war and suppressing natural rights for the sake of scratching the backs of special interests, candidates such as the Pauls are likely not wanted by those with the clout.  Surely the Republican Party has already implemented a strategy attempting to quell the potential nomination of the younger Paul.  This is the subject of my 2016 Republican Primary prediction.

In my opinion the most logical strategy to be taken up by the Old Guard would be to build trust from the libertarian population in someone other than Rand Paul over the next couple of years.  For the time being, talk of this other person running in 2016 would be relatively quiet so as not to tip off the hyper vigilant and skeptical followers of Ron Paul.  Once the primary season emerged, I would use the state-run media to bash Rand and sometimes just outright ignore him in the true spirit of how Ron was treated.  At the same time, I would paint the other candidate - the candidate I had bolstered previously - as a viable option for the Liberty Movement that actually had a chance of winning - a person the Republican base could support as well.  If successful, the other fellow would likely get the nomination, but even better, the other fellow would get a large portion of the liberty vote which could likely result in a win for the flailing party of old white men.

I suggest to you - and mark my words - this strategy is already at play, and the other man is very likely a man named Ted Cruz.  Consider what The Hill reported on May 3, 2013 in their piece Ted Cruz's rocket ride:
Will Cruz run in 2016?
I think it is a distinct possibility, because the groundswell of support will be overwhelming. The grass roots admire his intelligence and ability to make (and win) an argument. His personal story and Cuban heritage are appealing.
Texas is a fantastic state in which to raise money. He is not facing reelection until 2018. There are many good reasons.
At the same time, the article downplayed the possibility stating:
Let’s be clear about what has, and more importantly, what hasn’t happened.
Cruz has taken no direct steps toward running for president, barely three months into office. He has not expanded his operation, hired new consultants or sought out major donors.
The Washington Post also said there was "rampant speculation" Cruz will run in 2016 on May 8, 2013 in this piece regarding the Canadian born senator which has an American mother.  In addition, The Dallas Morning News reported recently on "an influential Iowa conservative" predicting that Cruz would be atop the Republican field of candidates if he decided to run in 2016 - here.  These articles coupled with the regular television exposure Cruz is getting from the ever reliable bastion of conservative information Fox News, such as the video below where the first term senator takes up the position of abolishing the IRS (and somehow implementing a flat tax that doesn't require a collection agency?), suggests to me that Senator Ted will make a bid in '16, and further, he is trying to swoon Paulites in the meantime.


Compounding the likelihood that the Republicans are putting their eggs into the Cruz basket is the fact that Ron Paul himself endorsed Cruz in his Senate campaign in 2012.  A few facts that many may not know about Ted Cruz are:
Cruz served as an associate deputy attorney general in the U.S. Justice Department and as the director of policy planning at the U.S. Federal Trade Commission under President George W. Bush.
Cruz did legal work during the Florida recount for the Bush campaign.
Ted Cruz's wife is a big player at Goldman Sachs.
For further reading on Cruz, his wiki page is equipped with plenty of sources.

In my opinion, Ted Cruz is tailoring his rhetoric for acceptance from the Liberty Movement so that the establishment can avoid an ever dreaded Paul Administration (which has a nice ring to it if you ask me).  Nonetheless, I say be ever vigilant and never place full trust in a politician, a lawyer, or anyone that has financial ties to Goldman Sachs.  Ted Cruz has been walking like a duck and talking like a duck, but he smells of skunk to this author.

Be weary, please comment, and remember what I've said come the primary season.



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